I started the week with a few carried over trade from the prior week, which was all good they were at a profit when I closed off Friday night.
As you would be aware I am currently trialing CTrader with Pepperstone and I have to say its pretty different to what I am used to trading with (FXCM TSII)
.....So you can imagine my dismay when I opened my platform on Monday afternoon only to discover a limit order that I had placed as a sell (thought I had) had been triggered as a buy (like WTF?) What a total screw up! Talk about an amateur move!
So I spent the rest of the week, digging myself out of the hole, which was an exercise in patience and discipline, stalking scalps and adding trades when price hit key levels.
Plus trading late I did get to see a few awesome sunrises now that the rain has finally stopped.
You got to look on the bright side of life ....right!
This year however December is going to be anything but ordinary, with an absolute onslaught of fundamental data expected, while running a high risk of extreme volatility.
The question immediately on most traders’ minds is whether the jawboning of both the Federal reserve and the ECB culminate in them making good on the monetary policy biases they have been shaping over the past few months
However, traders of all markets should be more concerned over the implications of high volatility against thin volume and the leveraged speculative exposure of the herd.
These are circumstances ripe for liquidity problems and a dramatic shift in both market direction and pace.
I reckon the reaction to NFP will be a good indicator of what we can expect over the next month.
KEY EVENT RISK this week
Tuesday 1500 GMT US ISM NOV Expected 50.50 Prior 50.1
Thursday 1500 GMT Yellen to testify before Congress Economic Committee
Thursday 1500 GMT US ISM - NonMFG Comp NOV Expected 58.0 Prior 59.10
Friday 1330 GMT US Unemployment Rate NOV Expected 5.0% Prior 5.0%
Friday 1330 GMT US Non farm Payrolls Expected 200k Prior 270k
If we can get a short squeeze I fully expect it could rally as high as 1.0950 before getting the smack down, the volatility and thin markets may make this price a reality should their be any hints of USD weakness or a failure to meet ISM and Job number expectations.
Key Levels 1.0950, 1.0840, 1.0740 and 1.0660, I like these areas to start taking small shorts to play the rate cut trade scenario, by take small trades and you can weather adverse moves in the short term provided you are trading the same direction as the the FED.
I'm happy to start adding shorts on a break of 1.0680 see range adding as the price moves higher.
As I think there is a very good chance that the price will fall back into a vacuum on Monday providing me another opportunity to buy back in at a lower price.
Its pretty clear that the SNB has been intervening ahead of the of any ECB action, stating that they will "do whatever it take" and "there is no limit to the SNB balance sheet" that is some crazy shiz to be saying if your a central banker!
I like buys in this around parity but I'm not sure it will get back there. I'm happy to start building positions around the up trend line support.
I see this as high as 1.1000-1.1200 if the SNB pursues this line.
Most traders start with between $2,500 and $10,000 trading capital the small account challenge is about growing a small account both in percentage and dollar terms.
You can follow me at @fatbeetrader on twitter or sign up for future courses and events at http://www.fatbeetrader.com/sign-up.html
Blog posts like this take a crapload of time to write therefore I decided to make this weeks blog public, so if you want more content like this please leave a comment below or retweet the article on the twitter.