The first few trade of the week I just plain stuffed up! I got in my own way.
Had I been treating these trades as very short term scalps I could have possibly made some more money, however as per the blog post for week three, I had been discussing longer term trades that people could get involved in and I really wanted to stay as true to those published ideas as possible.
The market had a pretty bad hangover this week after the NFP data and my mainstay pair the $EURUSD has spent the week ranging between 1.0675 and 1.0830.
Which is totally fine, if your prepared to take small nibbles at the market with size on the trade, this however was not the objective of the #SAC.
As a result of the ranging chop a total of nine trades where closed during the week, with overall mixed results as you can see below.
From there I started to focus on key levels to sell the $EURUSD from and Buy the $USDCHF from by the end of the week things took a turn for the better finishing the week +6.43% for the week, which i thought was pretty good considering (excluding the unrealized profit on the 3 open trades.)
A comeback like this called for a few days at the beach over the weekend.
The current KEY LEVELS in the pair are 1.0675 support and 1.0830 resistance, if we can get a short squeeze I fully expect it could rally as high as 1.0950 before getting the smack down.
US Rate rises are on the cards an so is an expansion of ECB intervention. A Reuters interview with four anonymous governing council members suggests that the ECB is likely to cut the deposit rate by at least 10 basis points in December. If that eventuates it will be gold for $EUR shorts
I'm happy to add to shorts on a break of 1.0660 or as the price moves past 1.0840
Currently I hold shorts on this from 1.0770 and 1.0730
I like buys in this around parity. I currently hold one long from around 1.0015
This is one that I want to be done with asap, with the ECB planning further QE, we may see a pre-emptive move by the SNB heading into December to intervene in weakening it further.
While we may see a spike higher on some crazy ass intervention, we may also see some poor fills as some people experienced in the SNB fiasco at the start of the year...hence I'd just prefer not to be involved at that point!